Spatial-temporal change driving forces and distribution prediction of landscape ecological risk in Harbin

doi:10.13474/j.cnki.11-2246.2022.0048

Abstract

Abstract: This paper takes Harbin as the research object,constructs a landscape ecological risk and prediction model, analyzes the driving force of temporal and spatial change of landscape ecological risk from 1998 to 2018, and predicts the spatial distribution of regional landscape ecological risk in 2023. The results show that：①The regional landscape ecological risk decreased firstly and then increased in recent 20 years, and the spatial pattern changed significantly. ②Road distance, secondary industry, agriculture and elevation are the main driving forces for the change of landscape ecological risk. From 1998 to 2008, the distance coefficient of roads decreased around the main urban area and increased in the south. No significant change was observed at other times.The overall impact of agriculture and elevation on regional landscape ecological risk was significant, and there were spatial differences. The degree of impact of secondary sector of the economy on regional landscape ecological risk increased first and then decreased. ③The predicted spatial difference of landscape ecological risk in 2023 is not obvious, and the reduced area is larger than the increased area.

Key words: landscape ecological risk, ecological service value, geographically weighted regression, grey prediction, Harbin city

CLC Number:

P208

ZHANG Yujuan, QU Jianguang, HOU Jianguo. Spatial-temporal change driving forces and distribution prediction of landscape ecological risk in Harbin[J]. Bulletin of Surveying and Mapping, 2022, 0(2): 83-89,94.

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