Analysis of astronomical measurement considering effects of earth roration parameter prediction error

doi:10.13474/j.cnki.11-2246.2023.0240

Abstract

Abstract: Due to the hysteresis of earth rotation parameters (ERP), currently only the forecast values of Bulletin A (referred to as Bulletin A) provided by the IERS are used for calculation, however, the effect of ERP forecast errors on astronomical measurement is currently lacking systematic research.To this end, this paper selects the forecast errors of IERS 2015-2021 Bulletin A in the past 7 years to analyze its long-term forecast and forecast errors in different time spans, and takes the observation results of digital zenith telescope at a station as an example to analyze the effect of the Bulletin A forecast error on astronomical measurement. It shows that with the increase of time, the forecast accuracy is getting worse and worse. The forecast error for one-year span of the polar shift reaches 0.021 4 as, The effect of polar shift prediction error on astronomical longitude、latitude and astronomical azimuth is 0.045 as、0.041 as and 0.042 as, which fully meets the accuracy requirements of first-class astronomical measurements.The UT1-UTC prediction accuracy is the major factor limiting the accuracy of the Bulletin A. The prediction error of UT1-UTC in a 60-day span reaches 0.007 s, and the effect on astronomical longitude reaches 0.379 as, which has exceeded the accuracy requirements of first-class astronomical measurements.In order to meet the requirements of first-class astronomical measurements, when the UT1-UTC predicted value is selected, the maximum time span is 40 d.

Key words: astronomical measurements, earth rotation parameters, forecast error, pole shift, UT1-UTC

CLC Number:

P222

WEI Fei, GAO Yuping, YIN Dongshan. Analysis of astronomical measurement considering effects of earth roration parameter prediction error[J]. Bulletin of Surveying and Mapping, 2023, 0(8): 102-107,125.

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