关键词: 存量碳汇, PLUS模型, 土地利用动态度, 国土空间格局

Abstract: The valuation and effective management of terrestrial carbon sinks have emerged as critical components in global climate change mitigation strategies.While incremental carbon sinks have established trading mechanisms,the valuation and realization of stock carbon sink potential remains a significant challenge,particularly at regional and local scales.This gap in carbon sink management presents a crucial barrier to achieving carbon neutrality objectives and optimizing ecological asset values.This study develops an integrated methodological framework for quantifying and realizing stock carbon sink values at the county level through innovative land use optimization approaches.Employing a multi-dimensional research methodology incorporating spatio-temporal analysis,PLUS＆CA modeling,and dynamic simulation techniques,we examine the complex interactions between land use patterns and carbon sink capacity.Our analysis yields three significant contributions:①development of a comprehensive accounting model that integrates terrestrial stock carbon sink assessment with land use change dynamics; ②establishment of a longitudinal dataset documenting terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink patterns,supplemented by spatial simulation projections; ③construction of a novel value realization framework that transcends conventional carbon market limitations.Our findings demonstrate that land use modifications significantly influence the spatio-temporal distribution of terrestrial stock carbon sinks,while effective value realization mechanisms can optimize land use patterns through feedback mechanisms.The research further reveals that successful implementation requires a systematic approach integrating policy frameworks,market mechanisms,and technological innovations,supported by coordinated stakeholder engagement and adaptive management strategies.

Key words: stock carbon sink, PLUS model, land-use dynamic degree, spatial land use pattern