关键词: 生态敏感性, 主客观赋权法, 绿洲, 莫兰指数, 伊犁河谷

Abstract: In order to explore the protection methods of oasis ecological environment and solve the contradiction between oasis ecological environment and social and economic development, this paper selects seven ecological sensitivity evaluation factors, combines with analytic hierarchy process and mean square error decision method to determine the weight of each factor, and evaluates and analyzes the ecological sensitivity of Yili river valley. Then, four social and economic indicators are selected to analyze the correlation between ecological sensitivity and social economy in Yili river valley through spatial autocorrelation analysis using Moran index. The results show that:① Altitude factors and vegetation factors have the strongest impact on ecological sensitivity in the Yili river valley. ② The ecological sensitivity of Yili river valley is moderate in general, mainly affected by vertical zonality, and has a positive correlation with altitude and slope. Affected by natural environment, sensitivity is negatively correlated with water and vegetation. ③ There is a negative spatial correlation between ecological sensitivity and social economy in Yili river valley. The research on the correlation between ecological sensitivity and social economy provides certain theoretical guidance and reference for the future ecological protection, territorial space planning and social and economic development of Yili river valley.

Key words: ecological sensitivity, subjective and objective weighting method, oasis, Moran index, Yili river valley