基于时序Sentinel-2数据的Baltoro冰川冰面湖动态变化监测

doi:10.13474/j.cnki.11-2246.2026.0808

摘要/Abstract

摘要： [目的] 冰面湖作为冰冻圈的关键组成部分，其动态变化与冰川系统的稳定性密切相关。受全球气候变暖影响，全球冰川普遍呈现退缩、减薄趋势，且物质损失持续加剧，导致冰面湖的数量与面积发生剧烈波动。因此，精准监测冰面湖的动态变化，对揭示区域气候环境演变规律具有重要科学意义。[方法] 本文基于2016—2023年Sentinel-2影像，利用随机森林算法提取喀喇昆仑区域Baltoro冰川冰面湖，分析其变化特征。[结果] 结果表明，Baltoro 冰川冰面湖的数量呈现总体上升趋势，总面积则呈下降趋势；干涸冰面湖数量持续上升，新增与稳定冰面湖数量先增后减。按面积划分的小、中、大型冰面湖中，数量占比从大到小依次为小型、中型、大型，面积波动幅度从大到小依次为大型、中型、小型。[结论] 本文研究结果为后续深入分析喀喇昆仑区域冰川变化机制及气候环境演变规律提供了关键的基础数据支撑。

关键词: 喀喇昆仑区域, Baltoro冰川, 冰面湖, 随机森林算法, 动态监测

Abstract: [Purposes] As a key component of the cryosphere，the dynamic changes of supraglacial lakes are closely related to the stability of glacial systems.In recent years，affected by global warming，glaciers around the world have generally shown a trend of retreat and thinning，and the problem of negative mass balance has continued to worsen.This has directly led to dramatic fluctuations in the number and area of supraglacial lakes.Therefore，accurate monitoring of the dynamic changes of supraglacial lakes holds important scientific significance for revealing the evolution laws of regional climate and environment. [Methods] Based on Sentinel-2 images from 2016 to 2023，this study adopts the random forest algorithm to extract supraglacial lakes on the Baltoro Glacier in the Karakoram region and analyzes the temporal variation characteristics. [Findings] The results show that the number of supraglacial lakes on the Baltoro Glacier shows an overall upward trend，while their total area exhibits a downward trend.In addition，the analysis of the stability of supraglacial lakes shows that the number of dried-up supraglacial lakes has continued to rise，while the number of newly formed and stable supraglacial lakes first increased and then decreased.Among the small，medium，and large supraglacial lakes classified by area，the proportion of their quantities followed form largest to smallest in order of small、medium、large，while the amplitude of their area fluctuations followed form largest to smallest in order large、medium、small. [Conclusions] The findings of this study provide crucial foundational data support for subsequent in-depth analysis of glacial change mechanisms and the evolutionary laws of the climate and environment in the Karakoram region.

Key words: Karakoram region, Baltoro Glacier, supraglacial lake, random forest algorithm, dynamic monitoring

中图分类号:

P237

孙永玲, 刘晓, 潘乐然, 陈一喆, 张志敏. 基于时序Sentinel-2数据的Baltoro冰川冰面湖动态变化监测[J]. 测绘通报, 2026, 0(8): 51-58.

Sun Yongling, Liu Xiao, Pan Leran, Chen Yizhe, Zhang Zhimin. Supraglacial lakes dynamic changes monitoring in the Baltoro Glacier based on time-series Sentinel-2 data[J]. Bulletin of Surveying and Mapping, 2026, 0(8): 51-58.

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http://tb.chinasmp.com/CN/Y2026/V0/I8/51

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