Abstract: Based on the land use data of Heyuan city from 2009 to 2018, the PLUS model is used to simulate the land use in 2030 under three typical scenarios, and the spatial autocorrelation of land use change, the correlation of driving factors and the migration of gravity center are discussed with the example of cultivated land. The results show that the cultivated land, building land and traffic land will expand and the overall land value is higher than the other two scenarios under the natural development scenario. In the ecological protection priority scenario, the main source of urbanization expansion land is cultivated land, garden land and other agricultural economic land, while in the economic development scenario, it is forest land. The spatial and temporal characteristics of cultivated land and its change are more in the north and less in the south, and the center of gravity of this kind of land will move northward.

Key words: land use, PLUS model, scene construction, temporal and spatial characteristics