Multi-track sequential InSAR mining 3D deformation monitoring and prediction combined with Prophet-CNN model

doi:10.13474/j.cnki.11-2246.2024.0510

Abstract

Abstract: Due to the geological conditions and special mining methods of the mineral deposits, most mining areas are prone to cause the imbalance of geological stress in mining areas, resulting in different degrees of deformation and failure. In order to explore the surface stability of Dahongshan mining area under mining activities, the three-dimensional deformation field of Dahongshan mining area is calculated by combining the three-track SAR images covering the area from 2021 to 2023, and the deformation characteristics of the mining area are analyzed. On this basis, the Prophet-CNN model is used to train the deformation time series, and the deformation prediction model is built to predict the three-dimensional deformation trend of the mining area. The results show that the surface deformation occurs continuously under the influence of mining activities, and the deformation is mainly distributed in Xiaoshuiqing southern waste rock field, open-pit mining area and copper mining area, and the maximum vertical deformation rate is -51.22mm/a. The Prophet-CNN combined model is used to predict the 3D surface deformation in the mining area in time series, and the RMSE and MAE of the prediction results in the three directions are below 2.90 and 1.85mm, respectively, which fully indicated that the proposed method could be applied to the prediction of the subsidence trend in the mining area and provide technical basis for disaster prevention and reduction.

Key words: InSAR, ascending and descending, 3D deformation decomposition, Prophet-CNN, monitoring and prediction

CLC Number:

P237

BI Zihang, LI Sumin, ZHANG Longyu, ZHANG Wei, LI Yuansong, YUAN Liwei. Multi-track sequential InSAR mining 3D deformation monitoring and prediction combined with Prophet-CNN model[J]. Bulletin of Surveying and Mapping, 2024, 0(5): 53-59.

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