An improved MMF subsidence prediction model based on the Markov chain and its application

doi:10.13474/j.cnki.11-2246.2022.0014

Abstract

Abstract: Aiming at the complex and random characteristics of foundation settlement mechanism, an improved MMF settlement prediction model based on Markov chain theory is established. Firstly, the MMF model is fitted by CurveExpert software with some measured data. Then, according to the relative error predicted by the MMF model, the state interval is divided according to Markov theory, and the probability matrix of state transition is constructed to predict the state of the next settlement, thus the MMF prediction value improved based on Markov chain is obtained. Finally, the model is applied to the settlement prediction of shenzhen Binhai road municipal engineering soft soil subgrade, and the prediction accuracy of the model is analyzed. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the MMF model based on Markov chain is significantly higher than the MMF model. The modeling method is reasonable and can be used for similar engineering prediction.

Key words: Markov chain, MMF, foundation, subsidence prediction, application

CLC Number:

P258

ZHAO Yahong, WNAG Weina, JIANG Peihua, LI Jiahui. An improved MMF subsidence prediction model based on the Markov chain and its application[J]. Bulletin of Surveying and Mapping, 2022, 0(1): 79-83.

References

[1] ZHANG Chuang, LI Jianzhong, HE Yong. Application of optimized grey discrete Verhulst-BP neural network model in settlement prediction of foundation pit[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences, 2019, 78(15):1-15.
[2] 刘青豪, 张永红, 邓敏, 等. 大范围地表沉降时序深度学习预测法[J]. 测绘学报, 2021, 50(3):396-404.
[3] 赵亚红, 王金星, 张丽华, 等. 基于IOWHA算子的路基沉降加权组合预测方法研究[J]. 铁道科学与工程学报, 2018, 15(10):2529-2534.
[4] 廖卫红, 王军保. MMF模型在地基沉降预测中的应用研究[J]. 地下空间与工程学报, 2011, 7(4):807-811.
[5] 谌芳. 基于MMF模型和Richards模型的组合预测模型应用研究[J]. 黑龙江科学, 2018, 9(12):13-14.
[6] 王建强. 组合模型在桥梁墩台沉降预测中的应用[J]. 矿山测量, 2018, 46(2):47-51.
[7] 王军保, 刘新荣, 李鹏, 等. MMF模型在采空区地表沉降预测中的应用[J]. 煤炭学报, 2012, 37(3):411-415.
[8] 王玉涛. MMF-Weibull组合模型在采空区地表沉降预测中的应用[J]. 煤炭技术, 2020, 39(9):18-21.
[9] 翁志坚, 邱晨杰, 邱福祥, 等. 基于马尔可夫优化的灰色GM (1, 1)沉降预测模型及应用[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2020, 20(29):12065-12070.
[10] 冯源, 业明达. 一种状态区间取值修正的灰色-马尔可夫链预测模型研究[J]. 测绘地理信息, 2021, 46(4):65-68.
[11] 程雍. 灰色马尔可夫模型在宁邦超高层建筑沉降预测中的应用研究[D]. 湘潭:湘潭大学, 2020.
[12] 万虹麟, 任刚. 马尔可夫链优化Logistic曲线的基坑沉降预测模型[J]. 测绘科学技术学报, 2020, 37(2):166-170.
[13] 赵亚红, 贺黎明, 王金星, 等. 马尔可夫链优化Richards曲线的沉降预测模型[J]. 测绘通报, 2018(6):118-121.
[14] 赵亚红, 王金星, 郝延锦. L1范数原则下MMF与Logistic组合预测模型研究[J]. 数学的实践与认识, 2021, 51(17):111-118.
[15] 唐诗华, 王江波, 王凯, 等. MC-最优变权组合模型在建筑物变形中的应用[J]. 桂林理工大学学报, 2018, 38(2):295-300.
[16] 邹进贵, 肖扬宣, 张士勇. 马尔可夫链改进的ARIMA-BP神经网络模型研究[J]. 测绘地理信息, 2016, 41(4):32-36.
[17] 汪宏宇, 龚循强, 鲁铁定, 等. 基于马尔可夫链的曲线拟合法在尾矿坝沉降预测中的应用[J]. 东华理工大学学报(自然科学版), 2021, 44(4):364-369.
[18] 郎茂祥,傅选义,朱广宇,等.预测理论与方法[M]. 北京:清华大学出版社,北京交通大学出版社,2011:167-168.
[19] 杨世安. 优化的灰色马尔可夫模型在建筑物沉降预测中的应用[D]. 抚州:东华理工大学, 2014.
[20] 曹文贵, 印鹏, 贺敏, 等. 基于数据新旧程度和预测取值区间调整的沉降组合预测方法[J]. 岩土力学, 2017, 38(2):534-540.