关键词: 生态风险评价, 灰色-TOPSIS, 探索性时空数据分析, 珠三角城市群

Abstract: Coordinating the relationship between urban development and natural resources ecology is a major issue considered in the context of high-quality development.In this paper,by constructing the driver-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) natural resources ecological risk evaluation index system,combining the Gray-TOPSIS multi-objective decision-making evaluation methodology and exploratory spatio-temporal data analysis meth-odology,we analyze the natural resources ecological risk of the pearl river delta urban agglomeration.The spatio-temporal pattern and its spatio-temporal leap evolution characteris-tics are analyzed.The study shows that: ①More than three quarters of the cities in the PRD economic circle will experience a gradual decrease in natural resource ecological risk from 2012 to 2022,but more than half of the cities will experience medium risk and above,with an overall high level of risk. ②The eastern and southern parts of the PRD urban agglomeration exhibit more dynamic spatial structural characteristics,and the northwestern part of the urban agglomeration will be more influenced by neighboring cities,with a greater spatial and temporal influence on the level of risk of natural resources.Neighboring cities,with stronger spatial and temporal dependence,and more than 50%of the cities' natural resource ecological risks show strong spatial integration in the evolution of spatial patterns.③The spatial cohesion of Moran's I is only 11.11%,indicating that the ec-ological security level of each city in the PRD urban agglomeration has a large pattern of change,and its own relative position is prone to change.

Key words: ecological risk assessment, Gray-TOPSIS, exploratory spatio-temporal data analysis, Pearl River Delta city cluster