一种基于卫星遥感的临近预报方法

doi:10.13474/j.cnki.11-2246.2019.0089

测绘通报 ›› 2019, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (3): 113-115,119.doi: 10.13474/j.cnki.11-2246.2019.0089

一种基于卫星遥感的临近预报方法

刘佳

商丘师范学院信息技术学院, 河南商丘 476000

收稿日期:2018-04-24 出版日期:2019-03-25 发布日期:2019-04-02
作者简介:刘佳(1984-),男,博士,讲师,主要研究方向为遥感信息处理与模式识别。E-mail:sqsylj@126.com
基金资助:
国家重大科技专项高分专项（民用部分）（E0310/1112/02-1）；河南省高等学校重点科研项目（18B520032）；河南省科技攻关项目（182102210486）

A nowcasting method based on satellite remote sensing

LIU Jia

School of information technology, Shangqiu Normal University, Shangqiu 476000, China

Received:2018-04-24 Online:2019-03-25 Published:2019-04-02

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 中尺度对流系统（MCS）是形成强对流天气的主要原因，云团在MCS生命周期中的分裂合并问题是临近预报的难点。为解决这一问题，本文提出了FCC方法，该方法使用质心位移和FY-2卫星数据预测多个对流单体的运动轨迹。多个案例分析证明，FCC算法在MCS的各个生命周期均能进行有效的预测，包括初生、成熟和消散阶段。此外，通过列联表方法验证了所提算法的有效性。

关键词: 中尺度对流系统, 对流单体, 临近预报, 质心位移

Abstract: MCS (mesoscale convective system) is the main reason of formation strong convective weather.The main problem of existing tracking and forecasting algorithms is unphysical split and merger of cloud clusters within the life cycle of MCS.To address this problem,FCC (forecasting convective cells) method is proposed.Displacement of the geometrical centroid is utilized to forecast the movement of convective cells in FCC algorithm using FY-2 satellite data.Case studies show that convective cells are forecasted efficiently in different phases of MCS lifecycle including genesis,maturity and dissipation using FCC algorithm.Moreover,contingency tables method applied to various case studies show that proposed algorithm efficiently and accurately.

Key words: mesoscale convective system, convective cell, nowcasting, displacement of the geometrical centroid

中图分类号:

P237

刘佳. 一种基于卫星遥感的临近预报方法[J]. 测绘通报, 2019, 0(3): 113-115,119.

LIU Jia. A nowcasting method based on satellite remote sensing[J]. 测绘通报, 2019, 0(3): 113-115,119.

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一种基于卫星遥感的临近预报方法

A nowcasting method based on satellite remote sensing

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