关键词: 土地利用动态变化, 地理探测器, 驱动因子, PLUS模型, “一江两河”流域

Abstract: Aiming at the lack of research on land use evolution,change drivers and land use prediction in large-scale remote watersheds,the paper analyses the land use evolution of the watersheds based on the data of land cover of “One River and Two Rivers” watersheds of Tibet for five periods from 2000 to 2020 by using GIS technology,geo-detector and PLUS model,and explores the driving mechanism affecting the change of cultivated land. Based on the five periods of land cover data from 2000 to 2020,we analysed the evolution of land use in the basin,explored the driving mechanisms affecting the change of cultivated land,and simulated the land use status of the basin in 2025 under multiple scenarios. The results show that: ①the spatial pattern of land use in the “One River and Two Rivers” watershed in Tibet will change significantly from 2000 to 2020,with a decreasing trend in the areas of arable land,watershed and unused land,and an increase in the areas of construction land and forest and grassland.②The degree of land use in the basin with wide vegetation cover is medium-low level,and its comprehensive land use dynamics shows the trend of “decreasing firstly and then increasing”. ③Distance from water,precipitation and elevation are the main factors affecting the change of arable land in the watershed.④The ecological protection scenario is more in line with the green and sustainable development of land use in the “One River and Two Rivers” watershed in the future,and can provide a reference for the rational planning of land resources in the watershed.

Key words: land use dynamics, geoprobe, driving factor, PLUS model, “One River and Two Rivers” basin