关键词: 河西走廊, 冰川变化, 冰川融水径流, VIC模型, 未来气候情景

Abstract: [Purposes] Amid accelerating global warming,the sustained retreat of glaciers in the Qilian Mountains poses a direct and growing threat to water security in the Hexi Corridor.This study aims to reveal the impacts of glacier changes on regional water resources.[Methods] This study focuses on the five inland river basins of the Hexi Corridor，we integrated the variable infiltration capacity (VIC)hydrological model with an enhanced glacier mass-balance module,using glacier inventories,meteorological observations,streamflow measurements,and CMIP6 climate projections.Conduct simulation studies on glaciers and meltwater runoff.[Findings] The VIC model enhanced glacier mass-balance module demonstrates good applicability in the study area,with average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE)values of 0.80 during the prediction period and 0.78 during validation.Regional glaciers generally exhibit a retreat trend,with significant retreat intensity observed for large glaciers in the western section and relatively gradual shrinkage of smaller glaciers in the eastern section； the contribution of glacial meltwater to runoff is progressively declining.Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,glacier runoff decreases sharply,leading to rapid deterioration of its hydrological regulation function.[Conclusions] The research findings reveal the spatial variations in glacial-runoff evolution within the Hexi Corridor and its implications for future water resource risks,providing insights that support optimal regional water resource allocation and climate change adaptation．

Key words: Hexi Corridor, glacier changes, glacial melt water runoff, VIC model, future climate scenarios