关键词: 蓝绿空间, 情景模拟预测, PLUS模型, GMOP模型, 中心城区

Abstract: To evaluate the feasibility and potential biases of the PLUS model when applied at the central urban area scale.Taking the central urban area of Zoucheng city as the study site,this paper coupled the GMOP and PLUS models to simulate blue-green space patterns under four scenarios—planning constraints,economic priority,ecological conservation,and comprehensive development—by 2035.These results were systematically compared with the national territorial spatial master plan.Findings indicate: ①Spatial evolution in Zoucheng's central urban area exhibits eastward expansion and integration of blue-green-gray clusters.②The ecological conservation scenario represents the baseline pathway for implementing the planning blueprint,while the planning constraints scenario serves as the ideal path for achieving high-quality,sustainable development and enhancing long-term comprehensive value.③The PLUS model exhibits limitations in simulating policy-driven and engineering-based land uses such as undeveloped land,roadside green spaces,and planned artificial water systems.This study enhances the PLUS model's predictive precision through the GMOP model.However,integrating policy rules with multi-source data remains the developmental trend for simulating blue-green space at the urban scale.

Key words: blue-green space, scenario simulation and prediction, PLUS model, GMOP model, central urban area