关键词: 土地利用, FLUS-InVEST模型, 碳储量, 空间自相关分析, 多情景模拟

Abstract: By coupling FLUS-InVEST models and the current data of land use from 2010 to 2020,this study calculated and predicted the spatio-temporal difference of land and carbon storage in Beihai city, and predicted the impact of natural evolution scenarios and green intensive ecological development scenarios on land use and carbon storage in 2035. The spatial autocorrelation model was used to reveal the future spatial distribution trend, of which can provide scientific reference for land use management and land spatial planning under the “dual carbon” goal. The results show that: ① From 2010 to 2020, the overall transformation of land types was dominated by the conversion of land types with low carbon density to land types with high carbon density. The disordered flow of cultivated land to forest land is prominent; ②Over the course of the study, the overall carbon storage of Beihai city decreased first and then increased, with an overall increase of 4.01×10⁵ t in the past 10 years; ③By 2035, the predicted carbon reserves in Beihai city would further decrease in the natural evolution scenario. But in the green intensive ecological protection scenario, carbon reserves can still slowly recover under the premise of fully ensuring high-quality socio-economic development. In the next 15 years, carbon reserves can lose 1.36×10⁵ t less than in the natural change scenario.

Key words: land use, FLUS-InVEST model, carbon storage, spatial autocorrelation analysis, multi-scenario simulation