关键词: 土地利用, 经济人口空间分布, PLUS模型, SCS方法, 情景构建, 非首都功能, 北京市

Abstract: The policy of relieving non-capital functions involves many aspects such as urbanisation, economy and population, etc. Current forecasting studies are mostly aimed at simulating and forecasting a single spatial element, without paying attention to the intertwined effects of multiple spatial elements in urban development. In this paper, the non-central urban area of Beijing is taken as the study area, and based on multi-year land use data, GDP grid data and population grid data, the land use pattern in 2030 under the planning scenario and the GDP-population kilometre grid data in 2030 are simulated by the PLUS model and the SCS method in a multi-factor synergistic simulation, and the characteristics of spatial, temporal and aggregate changes are calculated. The results show that: ①Under the policy scenario of ecological priority, the forest and grassland and water bodies in the non-central urban areas of Beijing will expand but the overall expansion trend is not obvious.②Under the guidance of the policy, the population and GDP of the study area from 2020 to 2030 carry the spillover from the central area, and both the economy and population have achieved high-quality development. The research in this paper can provide scientific references for urbanisation, population monitoring and management, and optimal allocation of resources.

Key words: land use, spatial distribution of economic and population, PLUS model, SCS approach, scene construction, non-capital function, Beijing city