基于InSAR同震形变的地震灾害风险评估

doi:10.13474/j.cnki.11-2246.2026.0107

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 2023年2月6日土耳其发生了Mw7.8“双大震”,给当地人民生命和财产造成了严重损害。针对此次地震风险评估过程中地震同震形变对风险评估的敏感性量化问题,本文提出了一种基于InSAR同震形变和层次分析的风险评估方法。利用SAR卫星升轨和降轨数据,通过D-InSAR和GACOS大气改正,反演了精确的同震形变。采用层次分析方法,耦合了同震形变、致灾因子危害性和承载体脆弱性评价指标,并利用Sobol指数解析各因子敏感性贡献。结果表明,“双大震”最大形变量达1.88 m;极高风险和高风险区域集中在断裂带20 km缓冲区内人口高密度城市;断层距离效应、同震形变、人口密度及建筑密度是地震风险直接驱动因子,其中同震形变的总效应贡献了模型总方差的19.1%。本文为震后应急响应及重建规划提供了基础数据和科学依据。

关键词: InSAR, 同震形变, 层次分析法, 灾害风险评估, 敏感性分析

Abstract: On February 6,2023,Turkey was hit by the conjugate earthquakes of Mw7.8,causing severe damage to local lives and property.To address the issue of quantifying the sensitivity of seismic coseismic deformation to risk assessment during this earthquake risk assessment process,this study proposes an integrated risk assessment methodology combining InSAR-derived deformation data and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) .The precise coseismic deformation is retrieved byD-InSAR,corrected by GACOS and verified by using ascending and descending SAR satellite data.The AHP is used to integrate coseismic deformation with hazard potential of causative factors and vulnerability of exposed elements.Meanwhile,the Sobol indices are used to systematically quantified the sensitivity contributions of individual parameters.The results indicate that the max value of theconjugate earthquakes deformation reached 1.88 m.The high-risk zones are predominantly in the 20 km buffer zone of the fault zone where are the densely populated urban areas.The direct drivers of the seismic risk are the fault distance effect,coseismic deformation,population density,and building density.The total effect of the coseismic deformation accounted for 19.1% of the model's total variance.This study provides foundational data and a scientific basis for the post-earthquake emergency response and the reconstruction planning.

Key words: InSAR, coseismic deformation, analytic hierarchy process, disaster risk assessment, sensitivity analysis

中图分类号:

P237

李朋朋, 李德伟, 李晓红, 翟雪君. 基于InSAR同震形变的地震灾害风险评估[J]. 测绘通报, 2026, 0(1): 39-46.

LI Pengpeng, LI Dewei, LI Xiaohong, ZHAI Xuejun. Earthquake disaster risk assessment based on InSAR coseismic deformation[J]. Bulletin of Surveying and Mapping, 2026, 0(1): 39-46.

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